By Femi Dokunmu.
If you want to know which of the political parties would win an impending election, wait for shrewd politicians to begin to migrate, especially after the first election.
As things are in Ogun State, the pattern of allignments shows a preponderance of movements into the ruling party, APC, so much that opposition parties are now very uncomfortable and jittery, so much that they are now preoccupied with how to trivialize this trend and its implications on their scanty followers.
Of course, shrewd politicians who know their onion don't just play politics of tribal sentiments and hatred. They have no permanent friends or enemies and they switch to camps where they forecast victory looms. To them, politics is a game to play, not just to settle unguided scores nor massage anybody's ego, but to win and partake in the gains of winning.
Check out trends of movements in the past Governorship Elections in the State. Check out movement and realignment in 2019 in favour of Prince Dapo Abiodun and check out how the APC camp has further depleted the opposition parties. See how the merger of GNI's ADC with Dapo's APC has survived. See how the alignment of OGD's PDP has fortified Dapo's APC. See how Senator Lekan Mustapha has alligned with PDA and worked to emerge as PDA's Campaign DG. See how Chief Remi Bakare and Senator Gbenga Obadara and lately Chief Mrs Ogunremi have openly pitched tent with PDA while many big time players in Ogun Central prefer to keep off from SIA's ill-fated two-face agenda. See how Buruji lieutenants have flocked to APC to seek refuge. See how people of all walks of life have endorsed PDA and see how SIA's candidates in the last federal elections lost out even in Ogun Central, touted to be under SIA's direct political influence.
A case study of the officers and members of the Ogun State NLC, TUC, NULGE and various Teachers Union will show why they will all feel more comfortable endorsing and supporting Dapo Abiodun. They have not and cannot forget the fate of their leaders under SIA, the sponsor of ADC, who tortured the likes of Akeem Ambali who has now become National President of NULGE. These Unions will not smell SIA's ADC and the party's candidate who will have to inherit SIA's assets and liability. Unfortunately, SIA's liabilities are now more than his assets, moreso, that he is currently without incumbent powers. So, PDA does not have to procure or force this set of people into getting their support.
Conversely, the opposition keeps getting weaker and weaker. In Ogun West, the likes of Chief Jide Ojuko, Chief Samuel Ayedogbon, Engr. Yinka Akintomide and lately Hon. Kolawole Lawal Moboluwaduro (KLM) who is the sitting MHR have all alligned with PDA.
Suffice it to say that anyone who continues to pooh-pooh or trivialize the wave of endorsements being enjoyed by PDA now without coming to terms with it's devastating effects to the chances of the opposition is either politically naive, deliberately cunny or self-deluding. Whichever it is, March 18 would soon jolt such people to reality.
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